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in TeeLeague 18.09.2019 03:58
von mary123 | 2.355 Beiträge

ARLINGTON, Texas -- Adrian Beltre got the fastball he wanted.Beltres second home run of the game was a two-run shot on the first pitch from Ryan Madson with two outs in the ninth inning, and it rallied the Texas Rangers past the Oakland Athletics 7-6 Monday night for their third straight win.Hes a really gd pitcher, really gd changeup, Beltre said. I was hoping that he would throw me something over the plate that I could drive, and thats exactly what he did.Madson was feeling gd after converting all four save opportunities since the All-Star break, while Oakland was winning seven of 10 games.A gd fastball-hitting guy, sitting fastball, Madson said. Maybe I was being a little bullheaded, trying to beat him instead of putting it in a gd place.The heater I had for the last whole week, I was confident in it. It just happened to end up middle-middle to a fastball-hitting guy.Madson had his sixth blown save in 27 opportunities.Ian Desmond homered early for the Rangers. They increased their AL West lead for the first time since June 26, to 3 1/2 games over Houston.Beltre, who finished with four hits, had two singles in his first three at-bats before hitting a solo homer in the seventh against John Axford.What superlatives do you want me to put on it? Rangers manager Jeff Banister said. You can use them all. You could see the determination on his face.He had two special at-bats tonight, none bigger than the last one.Texas had trailed since Danny Valencia hit a two-run homer for Oakland in the first. All 13 runs in the game were scored with two outs.Texas turned three double plays behind starter Martin Perez, who has induced a major league-best 25 in 21 games.After the third inning, Perez held Oakland scoreless for three innings.I think I was more aggressive in the last three innings. Expand the zone and throw the ball where I wanted, he said.Valencia also had the first of three run-scoring doubles in a three-run third that gave the As a 5-1 lead.Nomar Mazara singled with one out in the ninth for Texas. Desmond hit his 19th homer in the first.Jake Diekman (2-1) worked a scoreless inning for the win.Billy Butler had three hits for the As.TRADE TALKRangers RHP Yu Darvish threw in the bullpen in preparation for Wednesdays scheduled start against Oakland, his third since coming off the disabled list for the second time this season.Through a translator, he expressed interest in the trade deadline a week away. Im always curious about who were going to get and all that stuff. And also I wonder, where am I going? he said with a laugh.MUNCY UP, HAHN DOWNA day after Athletics RHP Jesse Hahn allowed one run in 7 2/3 innings against Tampa Bay, Oakland optioned him back to Triple-A Nashville. The Athletics also recalled OF/1B Max Muncy from Nashville, where he batted .251 with eight home runs and 26 RBI in 64 games. Muncy ran for Butler in the eighth inning.TRAINERS RMAthletics: No one went on the disabled list Monday, the 21st day this season that Oakland has had 12 or more players on the DL. As players have missed a total of 966 games.Rangers: GM Jon Daniels said he expects DH Prince Fielder to undergo season-ending surgery to repair a herniated disk in his neck within a week. . Halfway through the minimum stay on the 60-day disabled list, RHP Colby Lewis (strained right lat muscle) threw from 75 feet. Hes about where we though he would be at this point, Banister said.UP NEXTAthletics: RHP Sonny Gray (4-9, 5.49 ERA) will start the second game of the series Tuesday.Rangers: RHP Nick Martinez (1-2, 6.45), scratched from Mondays scheduled start at Triple-A Round Rock, will be recalled to start Tuesdays game. NMD Shoes Wholesale . -- Most satisfying to Russ Smith about No. NMD R1 Mens Australia . Defencemen Drew Doughty, Shea Weber and forward Ryan Getzlaf also scored for the Canadians, who started their gold-medal defence 2-0. Goalie Roberto Luongo, getting the call in place of Game 1 starter Carey Price, was solid when needed in making 23 saves for the shutout. http://www.nmdaustraliasale.com/nmd-r2-shoes-australia.html . Bradwell was scheduled to become a free agent Tuesday. Born and raised in Toronto, Bradwell is entering his sixth CFL season, with all six played for his hometown Argonauts. st-shoes-australia/4.html" target="_blank">Ultra Bst 4.0 Sale Australia . But what about the officials? Every sport has officials and they also have stories about hard work and sacrifice but their accomplishments are seldom recognized by anyone outside their inner circle. st-shoes-australia/1.html" target="_blank">Ultra Bst 1.0 Australia . During the athletes parade, the 23-strong Ukrainian team was represented by a lone flagbearer in an apparent protest at the presence of Russian trps in Ukraines Crimean peninsula. Luck is a dirty word in ftball circles, at least outside of Indianapolis. After putting in hours upon hours of mental and physical preparation week after week, no successful ftball team wants to believe that it is winning games because it has been lucky. The struggling teams might want to believe that theyre unlucky, but once they turn things around, you better believe theyll be pointing toward hard work, resilience and improved play, not gd bounces and the vagaries of randomness.Yet, taking a step back, we know luck can play a huge role in determining ftball games. Luck tends to even out over a larger sample, which naturally means that luck matters more when fewer games have been played. It matters more and plays a bigger part in a half-season, as an example, than it does over a full campaign. Its with that exact argument in mind that were going to take a lk at how luck has influenced the first half of the NFL season today.Luck is shorthand here for a number of concepts; a better word would be randomness or variance, but luck will do. If youve been reading my work for the past few years, youll be familiar with many of these concepts (although I did not invent many of them). If not, you can read about many of them here. I last wrote about them before the season in suggesting that the Panthers and Broncos would decline, while the Cowboys and Chargers would improve. So far, so gd.Pythagorean expectationPoint differential is a better predictor of future win-loss record than current win-loss record. Its true in baseball, and research (by Rockets general manager Daryl Morey during his time at STATS) has reiterated the accuracy of that statement for ftball as well. We can generate an expected win total for each team by running their point totals through the Pythagorean expectation formula -- Points For2.37 / (Points For2.37 + Points Against2.37) -- and multiplying it by the number of games each team has played.Were already seeing the impact of last years Pythagorean expectation in 2016.The five teams who outperformed their point differential most significantly last year were Carolina, Denver, Indianapolis, Minnesota and San Francisco. Theyve underperformed their point differential this year by 1.9 combined wins.The five teams who most underperformed their point differential last year, meanwhile, were San Diego, Tennessee, Seattle, the New York Giants?and Jacksonville. Theyre still underperforming their expected win totals in 2016, but only by a combined 0.4 wins.Lking at 2016 performance, there are two teams who stand out as well ahead of their point differentials, and several who are likely to improve comfortably in the coming two months:The Raiders and Texans have produced better records than their point differentials (and underlying level of play) would suggest. The gd news for the Raiders is that it shouldnt really matter; even if they play like the just-above-.500 team their point differential suggests over the rest of the way, theyve already banked enough wins to make it into the postseason. Indeed, ESPNs Ftball Power Index gives them an 80.9 percent chance of making it into January. The Texans are down at 64.5 percent, and even that is only because the rest of their division is so dreadful. Theyre playing like a 6-10 team this year.Things should improve for the Browns, but their second-half performance wont really matter for entirely different reasons. This is more tangible information for fans of the Cardinals and Eagles. (Im counting the tie as a half-win for Arizona.) While Arizona has been disappointing this season, the dramatic shift in its win-loss record overstates the drop-off. Point differential suggest that the 13-3 Cards were a 11.9-win team last year and would have them on pace to be a 10.2-win team this season.The Eagles, sadly, might have sunk their own chances. Theyve surrounded statement wins oveer likely playoff teams in Pittsburgh and Minnesota with narrow losses to the Lions and the three other teams in the NFC East, all by one score or less.dddddddddddd Likewise, the Bills turned around their season after an 0-2 start by winning four straight, but three consecutive losses -- including one-score defeats at the hands of the Dolphins and Seahawks -- might dm their playoff hopes.Record in close gamesWhere gaps in Pythagorean expectation reside, unlikely gd or bad luck in close games tends to follow. Performances in one-score games are generally inconsistent from year to year, and were already seeing that with the standouts from last year. Last year, the five best teams in the league in games decided by one touchdown or less were the Panthers, Cardinals, Broncos, Vikings and 49ers. They were a combined 27-9 (.750) in one-score games last year; this season, theyre 3-8-1 (.292) in those same contests.Meanwhile, the dregs of the league have improved. The five worst teams in close games last year were the Browns, Cowboys, Giants, Titans and Chargers. (Well, some of them have improved.) They were a combined 11-33 (.250) in one-touchdown games last season, and in 2016, theyre 11-13 (.45. Regression toward the mean is a strong concept here.Five teams have gone winless in close games in 2016, with the Cardinals having a mere tie to their name as the sixth:The Bills, Browns and Eagles all reappear on this list thanks to their combined 0-12 record in one-score contests. The Texans and Raiders show up on the other side of the coin. The 5-2 Giants lurk just behind the Cowboys and Chiefs in terms of teams riding their luck in close games; the only game they have played that wasnt decided by seven points or fewer was their 14-point defeat at the hands of the Vikings in Week 4.Fumble recovery rateForcing fumbles is a skill, and giving away fumbles is a legitimate liability. What happens once the ball hits the ground is mostly randomness. No team has exhibited a steady ability to recover a disproportionately high percentage of the fumbles in their games. Not even that team you know who runs fumble recovery drills in practice and makes it a priority. (All teams do that.)If we know the rate at which fumbling teams recover the ftball, we can estimate how many fumbles each team should have recovered. Last year, that was 53.7 percent. (This year, as Chase Stuart noted last week, its closer to 57 percent.) The teams who outperformed their expected fumble recovery rates the most in 2015 were the Raiders, Texans, Giants, Bills and Jaguars. Those teams have actually recovered two fewer fumbles than league average given their combined opportunities this season. Again: Its random, folks, not a symptom of aggression or lack thereof. The Giants and Jags each ranked among the five best teams in the league in terms of fumble recovery rate last year; in 2016, theyre the first and third worst in terms of rate.On the other hand, the Cowboys, Patriots, Lions, Titans and Colts were the five worst teams in terms of fumble recoveries below expectation last season. This year, theyve combined to recover 0.9 fumbles more than a typical team, basically leaving them at league average. Where are the outliers in 2016?The big one is Big Blue.The Giants have lost eight of their 12 fumbles on offense, but even more distressingly, theyve forced nine fumbles on defense and recovered just one of them for an 11 percent rate. Those rates cant continue. The Panthers are just behind them, having lost all seven of their fumbles on offense this year when we would expect them to recover four of the seven lost ftballs. The Jags, just 2-for-8 in recovering fumbles on defense, lurk just behind. The grouping on the other side isnt quite as extreme. ' ' '

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